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This week, the US House of Representatives overwhelmingly passed a bill giving Congress the authority to block any effort by the Trump White House to weaken its sanctions bill on Russia. It was hailed as the greatest of patriotic acts against an American president said to be not just in the debt of the Russian President Vladimir Putin but actively working in favour of Russian interests.
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It follows the withdrawal of the ill-fated and flawed CIA program to arm a vague array of Syrian rebels in the country’s war and contradictory statements by the US President’s own son about whether he met Russian officials in a “treasonous capacity” during the 2016 presidential campaign. So the iron was hot and the Democrats and briefly many Republicans decided to hit with gusto.
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But in doing so the Democrats especially risk undoing the legacy of former President Barack Obama in the form of the Iran nuclear Deal or Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA). We must recall this arraignment is now under threat from a Trump White House dedicated to following the regional policies of the erratic and reckless Saudi crown prince Mohammed bin Salman. In lumping together a sanctions bill which includes Russia and Iran, the US Congress is forging ever closer alliances amongst its professed enemies. Throw into the mix the Trump White House’s aggressive stance against China in relation to the South China Sea dispute and trade and you have yourself a united axis rather than an alliance of convenience.
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This childish rashness is born of a McCarthyite hysteria which has built up in the US and ironically is fulfilling everything Putin would have wished. A paranoid and skittish US security apparatus looking for admittedly strong cyber division from Moscow but one never strong enough to exceed or stay ahead of US designs for long. A political class on a cold war footing focused on purging and provocation rather than dealing with the ailments of the American empire. Democrats who once urged firm caution with Russia now are the most ardent hawks and convince no one with any long term knowledge of Russia-US relations.
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The vote in the House was 419-3 which now means the bill goes on to the Senate, but it’s unclear when the Senate will vote on the measure, which includes new sanctions against both Russia, Iran and North Korea. Democrats hailed the bill as a strong example of bipartisanship and congratulated themselves on having disciplined Donald Trump whom they have described as a mere puppet of Vladimir Putin.
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The passage of such a bill has three effects. It aids Trump in his arguments with Iran over its compliance with the Iran nuclear deal. It isolates America from the EU and puts pressure on European companies and destroys relationships of long standing. And finally draws Russia closer to Iran. Two nations which are not natural allies but as with China are brought together by necessity and reaction to American action.
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Russia and Iran, allies in supporting Bashar al-Assad in Syria have been pushing together in an alliance made in America. Forgive the pun. This growing friendliness pre-dates Trump but has been solidified to dispute the claim by American liberals and Republican war hawks that he is no better than a puppet. In fact the Iran Deal and Trump’s desire to undermine it is the hidden element to prove that as close as he may be to Putin, he is no puppet so much as a useful idiot and one which the Russian President could easily fail out with.
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Beyond the panicked headlines from the Washington Post and New York Times about a “new axis” the distrust between the two nations is deeper and goes back well beyond these current days of the Islamic Republic. This fear is almost as pronounced as any resentment towards the British who hold a special place in the collective political and historic psyche of Iranians.
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The fear of Soviet influence during the 1950s and 1960s united the Shah and Iran geopolitically to the US and was understandable given the tradition of leftism in Iranian civil society and that the country faced the 2nd largest border of the Soviet Union. In 1945-6 Stalin finally, after much prodding from the US, removed his troops from Iran which since WW2 had been a 60,000 troop presence in the northern provinces of the nation.
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Additionally the Russian-Persian Wars of the 18th and 19th centuries reduced the Iranian empire and saw the nation like a “bone between two dogs” in the form of Tsarist Russia and the British. It lost control of the Caucasus to Russia and this pain has left a hidden wound, at least hidden to Western observers, on the political Iranian psyche even to this day.
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Following the revolution in 1979, the Islamic Republic of Iran maintained a tense relationship with the former Soviet Union due to ideological and historical reasons but a relationship that had to be maintained to compensate for the traumatic loss of US favour and relations. But this tentative reaching out to Russia during and after the Soviet period has to be seen as a “balance of power exercise” in which the republic seeks a partner rather than an ally to counterweight US-Saudi interests in the Gulf.
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But the Iranians are always at pains to ensure it does not turn into a protection racket. They may partner with weaker powers such as the embattled Syrian president or actors in Lebanon but never full alliance with a larger power. Independence is vital.
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This March, the Iranian President Hassan Rouhani made a two day tour in Russia in which he again focused on economic ties. Special attention was of course given to Russian investment in the Iranian energy sector as Russian companies are vying with South East Asian and European firms to development oil and gas fields in the country.
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Military cooperation, an area of contention between the two players, was also an area of discussion – especially the long-awaited Russian arms sales which were to the value of $10 billion. In short the perspective of both sides is different and goes utterly unseen by Washington observers. As Dr. Mohsen Miliani, the first and last word in Iranian foreign policy analysis, has stated Russia perceives Iran as “playing a key role in Putin’s longer-term strategy to become a major player in the Middle East.” However to Iran, the growing partnership is one of nervous high schoolers on their third date with the weird boy you don’t completely trust.
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Iran and Russia, which in fact compete with each other in global energy markets and have publicly sparred over stalled weapons deals, were never traditional allies. See last week, the Russia delegation welcoming Saudi oil ministers for talks. For decades, they have been wary of the other’s intentions, and leaders on both sides remain cautious of the growing ties. But what unites them is America miscalculation. The bigger picture of what US interests are and how some lead to destabilization brings a surface trust that has survived any strategic problems that linger.
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Ignorance in Washington among Trump’s advisers and even worst amongst those meant to be the legislative check on his power mistakes a grouping based on fear of American recklessness for a fully fledged axis ready to take over the world. No such thing exists.
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Liberals and centrists in America need to be smarter when it comes to responding to the Trump -Russia relationship and be wary of lobbying attempts to muddy the water with targeting Iran. Already France’s president Emmanuel Macron signalled that US sanctions would be in violation not just of the Iran Deal but international law for their extra territorial reach. Germany and France have also stated that they could engage in retaliatory action if anti-Russia or Iran sanctions harm European businesses. The Congressional Progressive Caucus yesterday released a statement to this effect stating that sanctions against Russia should not be a green light for escalation against Iran. They unfortunately do not represent the bulk of Democrats opinion at this time. We hope the party and the Congress takes note.