Financial Big Guns JP Morgan are betting on Scotland becoming Independent.

July 24, 2017

By Martin Keatings

According to financial giants JP Morgan, the current constitutional situation in the UK has put Scotland on course to hold a referendum to vote for independence and introduce its own currency before the UK leaves the European Union in 2019.

Who is JP Morgan? Well if you haven’t heard the name before then what you need to know is that JP are a global financial services firm with assets of $2.6 trillion, operate in more than 60 countries, have over 240,000 employees and have an annual profit that would dwarf the GDP of many a medium sized country. In the financial world, when JP Morgan make a prediction, they are normally right and the financial world listens.

Malcolm Barr, an economist at JP Morgan, said that there will be “pressure to hold a new referendum on Scottish independence” as the UK seeks a deal with the EU following its vote to leave the European project.

“Our base case is that Scotland will vote for independence and institute a new currency at that point [2019],” Barr said in a note to clients on Wednesday.

 The note also stated that the UK will be unsuccessful in its negotiating process with the European Union and that it will face a Hard Brexit.

This is all the more embarrassing for the UK Government because this Research is the type that gets distributed to the financial world as a whole for the purposes of future planning.

UK lawmakers are expected to try and establish access to the single market without accepting free movement of labour or contribution to the EU budget which is the equivelant of trying to remove the eggs from a cake after baking. You cannot have one without the other and the EU will not allow a member of the single market to derogate one of the four fundamental freedoms of that market? Why? Because the four fundamental freedoms ARE the single market. Without them it would no longer be the single market, the same as without cement, your house would fall down!

This means that UK is likely to end with “curtailed” access to Europe’s market, according to JP Morgan.

“The hit from EU exit will demonstrate itself as a persistent drag on a positive growth rate, rather than generating an on-going contraction,” JP Morgan said.

View image on TwitterView image on Twitter

JP Morgan also acknowledges that a myriad of uncertainties exist around the future of the relationship between the UK and the EU.

“In our minds, however, It is useful to lay out a base case as to how we think things will play out from here. It highly unlikely events will align exactly to this script,” Barr said.

You can follow Martin Keatings at his webpage MartinKeatings.com

featured image Flags

13 Comments

  1. Chris Boyle

    Very interesting but would j p morgan back a independent Scotland

    Reply
    • Stefan

      They are certainly moving a lot of people out of London into Glasgow and would probably be quite happy to service Europe from here if they could

      Reply
    • frank hocking

      Chris JP Morgan have already said an independent Scotland would have the benefit of their facility. The Scottish economy will flourish in independence. When we break the ties with Westminster then we can have a better life than we could ever get under the control of this destitute union.
      A life under the Tories is committing suicide.

      Reply
  2. British Patriot

    Oh lookkee. The Jocks get some unheard of bank (like can anybody ever even recall seeing this bank in the high street!!!???) too write them a little fairy story. Wonder how much Sturgeron paid for this bit of afroturfing?

    Reply
    • eperla

      You’ve never heard of Chase? That’s the same bank.

      Reply
    • CJ

      Unheard of bank? High Street? I think you need to learn the difference between a retail bank and an investment bank.

      Reply
    • Stefan

      Aye, JP Morgan are going to embarrass themselves by writing some stuff to please Nicola Sturgeon. Haha.

      First of all Nicola Sturgeon doesn’t have the money to buy JP Morgan, secondly their clients pay top dollar for their advice so they won’t be making it up.

      England has manipulated Scottish economic figures to suit their own purpose and it will all come out very soon.

      What planet are you on? If you haven’t heard of JP Morgan it must be little England

      Reply
    • Scottish Patriot

      Haha you imbecile. JP Morgan Chase are one of the largest financial organisations in the world. You think they’re nobody because they don’t run high street banks? You really are very naiive, and I pity you. Thanks for the laugh with “afroturfing” though, that sounds frickin awesome.

      Reply
    • frank hocking

      That shows how well educated you are the school you went to must have been well approved. J P Morgans were never a bank. shit for brains/
      J P Morgans are a financial institution. not a bank. and a very reliable one at that. their insight into the brexit fiasco will see little england wallowing in their own shite. which is good enough for them. they caused it they will have to live with it if they can live. a lot of property will be on the market soon. and credit card firms will be blocking the courts.to get their money back. from the stupid little brexiteers. so you see british patriot you are a down and out asshole.

      Reply
  3. David Halliday

    Is this not from 2016?

    Reply
  4. Anelda

    That opinion was written in 2016z not long after the EU Ref. A bit disingenuous to tout it around now.

    Reply
    • stewartb

      Why? Are recent views to be simply forgotten? How about these views for example:

      On 13th September 2014, The Telegraph published the following headline: “Scotland heading for a ‘Great Depression’ after a Yes vote: Deutsche Bank warns a vote for independence would be a historic mistake ….”.

      Then, on the 9th February 2015, The Telegraph published the following headline: “The European regions that could be better off going it alone: Scotland, Flanders and Catalonia are among the European regions that could be better off going it alone, says Deutsche Bank”.

      So within the space of c.4 months the same newspaper reported the views of the same bank on the very same issue viz. the economy of Scotland as an independent country, and presented totally contradictory conclusions. In my view it remains valid to ‘tout’ these matters of record around now!

      Reply
  5. FastDina

    I see you don’t monetize your website, don’t waste your traffic, you can earn additional cash every month because you’ve got hi quality content.

    If you want to know how to make extra money, search
    for: best adsense alternative Dracko’s tricks

    Reply

Submit a Comment

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *